Stats

Today's first hits

When today's no-hit bids ended.

Yesterday's deepest bids

No qualifying bids on yesterday's slate.

Season leaderboard

Deepest hitless bids of the season.

The season leaderboard will fill in as the schedule progresses.

Season calendar

The calendar will populate as the season progresses.

Team rankings

Average inning each team records its first hit, across all games this season.

Not enough season data to rank teams yet.

Season first hits

When this season's no-hit bids have ended.

All-time history

Every recognized MLB no-hitter since 1875.

The historical archive hasn't loaded.

Bid survival curve

Probability a no-hit bid is still alive at the end of each inning, across every MLB start in the modern archive.

The survival curve will appear once enough historical data has loaded.

Dished out vs. suffered

No-hitters thrown by team vs. how many times a team was no-hit.

The franchise breakdown will appear once the archive loads.

Career leaderboard

Pitchers with the most no-hit bids reaching the 6th inning or deeper since 2015.

The career leaderboard will appear as season data accumulates.

Heartbreak leaderboard

Pitchers with the most no-hit bids broken up in the 7th inning or deeper.

The near-misses leaderboard will appear once a pitcher carries multiple deep bids without finishing one.

Spoilers leaderboard

Hitters who have broken up the most no-hit bids reaching the 6th inning or deeper since 2015.

The spoiler leaderboard will appear as season data accumulates.

Anatomy of a spoiler

From pitch type to batted ball to outcome, how no-hit bids have ended since 2015.

The flow diagram will appear once Statcast data on spoiler hits is available.

Shape of a spoiler

Every spoiler hit by exit velocity, launch angle, and expected batting average.

The scatter chart will appear once Statcast data on spoiler hits is available.

Anatomy of a no-hitter

Every pitch from every no-hitter since 2015, and what each one produced.

The pitch breakdown will appear once pitch data for each no-hitter has been gathered.

Team seasons

How often each team's pitchers carried a no-hit bid into the 6th inning or deeper, by season.

The team-season matrix will fill in as season data accumulates.

This day in history lookup

Pick a date to see every recognized no-hitter thrown on that day of the year.

Tidbits for data geeks

• The Astros are the great outlier. Adjusted for years of existence, Houston throws no-hitters at nearly triple the league rate: 18 since 1962 against an expected 6.5. Across sixty franchise-level tests, Houston's is the only result that survives Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons (p ≈ 0.0002).
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  Since 1901 the 30 modern franchises have logged 2,736 team-seasons; Houston owns 65 of them. With 275 franchise-mapped no-hitters in that span, a team in Houston's shoes expects 275 × 65 ⁄ 2736 ≈ 6.5. They threw 18. The Poisson tail P(X ≥ 18 | λ = 6.5) ≈ 1.6×10⁻⁴, under the Bonferroni bar of 0.05 ⁄ 60 ≈ 8.3×10⁻⁴ for sixty franchise-level tests.

• No-hitters arrive in waves. If they struck at random, season counts would follow a Poisson distribution. They don't. The season-to-season variance runs 55% hotter than Poisson allows: classic overdispersion (p ≈ 0.00008). No-hitters cluster in pitching eras: the dead-ball era, the 1960s mound era, the modern strikeout age.
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  285 no-hitters across 126 modern seasons is a mean of 2.26 per year. A Poisson process would put the season-to-season variance near that mean; the observed variance is 3.51, a dispersion index of 1.55. The test statistic (index × 125 degrees of freedom) comes to 193.8, p ≈ 8×10⁻⁵ against pure randomness.

• 2021 was madness. Nine no-hitters in one season. At the long-run rate, a year like that should come along about once every 1,750 seasons (p ≈ 0.0006).
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  At the long-run rate of λ = 2.26 per season, P(X ≥ 9) ≈ 5.7×10⁻⁴: about one season in 1,750. Across all 126 modern seasons, the expected count of nine-no-hitter years is 0.07. We got one.

• The combined no-hitter is a modern invention. Before 1990, 1.8% of no-hitters used multiple pitchers. Since then it's 16.4%, a five-sigma shift (z = 5.0). Blame the bullpen era.
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  Before 1990: 4 combined among 220 no-hitters (1.8%). Since: 18 of 110 (16.4%). A two-proportion z-test against the pooled rate (22 ⁄ 330) gives z = 5.0, p ≈ 3×10⁻⁷.

• Eight hitless innings buys you a coin flip. Since 2015, pitching staffs have carried a no-hit bid through eight full innings 88 times. Just 40 of them recorded the last three outs. The other 48 watched it die with the finish line in sight.
• There is no late-inning choke. Track every start as a survival curve. Whatever inning a bid has reached, the chance it gets through the next inning without a hit sits in the same narrow band: 42 to 50 percent. The 9th is no harder than the 2nd. About 1 start in 1,250 just keeps stacking hitless innings until there are none left.
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  From 53,336 pitching starts since 2015, the chance a hitless bid survives each inning, given that it got there: 42%, 45%, 47%, 43%, 47%, 45%, 43%, 47%, 50% for innings 1 through 9. The full product is 0.0008, about 1 start in 1,250. These are the same rates drawn in the bid survival curve above.

• Only two no-hitters have ever been lost. Ken Johnson fell 1–0 in 1964; Steve Barber and Stu Miller fell 2–1 in 1967. Both came inside a four-season window, and no team has lost one since. The no-hit team has scored anyway 25 times (7.6% of all no-hitters).
• One in seven no-hitters ends 1–0, versus roughly one in forty of all games. The days that suppress hits suppress runs everywhere.
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  46 of the 330 won 1–0 (13.9%, about one in seven). Across all MLB games, a 1–0 final turns up roughly once in 40.

• Nolan Ryan's seven should not exist. The base rate works out to one no-hitter per ~1,400 starts. Even granting a 773-start career, the Poisson tail probability of seven is about 1 in 500,000. Sandy Koufax's four: roughly 1 in 400.
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  330 no-hitters over roughly 460,000 team-games (230,000 games, two pitching sides each) is one per ~1,394 starts. A 773-start career at that rate expects λ = 0.55. P(X ≥ 7 | λ = 0.55) ≈ 2×10⁻⁶, about 1 in 500,000. Koufax's four: P(X ≥ 4) ≈ 1 in 400.

• The Phillies have been no-hit 19 times. That's longevity, not a curse. Adjust for 126 seasons of existence and their victim rate isn't statistically unusual (p ≈ 0.06). The Padres' two-thrown, eleven-suffered ledger, though…
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  Same exposure model as the Astros entry: 276 franchise-mapped victims over 2,736 team-seasons puts the Phillies' 126 seasons at 12.7 expected. They have suffered 19. P(X ≥ 19 | λ = 12.7) ≈ 0.059, a result that chance alone produces about 6% of the time.

• There is no cursed calendar date. This is the birthday problem in cleats: scatter 330 no-hitters across a season's worth of calendar dates at random, and simulated reruns of history produce a six-no-hitter date more than 90% of the time. The real record? Six. Right on schedule.
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  Run 4,000 random scatters of 330 no-hitters across a season's calendar (weighted by each month's real share): more than 90% of the simulated histories produce at least one date holding six or more. Real history's busiest dates hold exactly six. The only two double-no-hitter days ever (April 22, 1898 and June 29, 1990) also sit on expectation; the per-season pairing math predicts about two.

• The April no-hitter is a myth. April produces slightly fewer no-hitters than its share of games (0.95×). September leads at 1.27×, and even that fails to clear statistical significance (p ≈ 0.27).
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  Observed vs. expected by month, using each month's approximate share of games played: April 0.95×, May 1.06×, June 1.02×, July 0.86×, August 0.82×, September 1.27×. The whole pattern tests at p ≈ 0.27 (chi-square, 5 degrees of freedom): consistent with noise. The exposure shares are estimates, but the conclusion survives any reasonable version of them.

• The ballpark matters, even after you account for both teams. A fixed-effects model over 54,274 pitching sides since 2015 still finds a clear venue signal once each season’s pitching staffs, lineups, and the home-side advantage are controlled (p ≈ 4×10⁻¹³). T-Mobile Park stretches the wait for a first hit about a fifth of an inning past the average park; Coors Field compresses it by roughly the same amount. And Dodger Stadium’s pitcher-park reputation? Much of that gap follows Dodgers pitching rather than the venue itself; its venue-only estimate grades slightly below average.
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  Model: first-hit depth ∼ park + pitching-team-season + batting-team-season + home⁄away, ordinary least squares over every pitching side since 2015. Each team’s road games pin down its own quality; whatever remains at its home park is the venue. The park block is highly significant (F = 4.01 on 31 degrees of freedom, p ≈ 4×10⁻¹³): venue adds real information after both teams are controlled. It is a thin slice of a noisy outcome, though; no single block explains even 1% of game-to-game variation (park ≈ 0.3%, each team-season block ≈ 0.9%). Venue-only effects span ±0.22 hitless innings and correlate 0.85 with the raw park table. They are persistent: even- and odd-season estimates correlate 0.69. The signal fades past the sixth inning, where 455 events since 2015 are too few for park-specific claims.

• Home staffs get a small head start, league-wide. Home pitching staffs carry a no-hit bid about a tenth of an inning deeper than visitors before surrendering the first hit (p ≈ 3×10⁻¹⁵). The archive shows no detectable park-to-park variation in that adjusted edge (interaction p ≈ 0.90), and any single park’s raw split also carries its home club’s pitching and plain sampling noise.
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  Across 54,274 pitching sides since 2015, home staffs average 0.815 completed hitless innings to start a game, visitors 0.733: an edge of +0.081, p ≈ 3×10⁻¹⁵ clustered by game. In first-hit terms: inning 1.81 versus 1.73. Fitting a separate home edge per park on top of team-season controls improves nothing (F = 0.69, p = 0.90). That is an absence of evidence for park-specific familiarity, not proof that every park’s edge is identical or even positive; a handful of raw park splits currently lean the visitors’ way.

• Cold weather is a bid’s best friend. Outdoors, every extra 10°F at first pitch is associated with about 0.03 fewer hitless innings to start a game (p ≈ 2×10⁻⁸). Below 55°F, the first hit waits until inning 1.81 on average; in 85°F-plus heat it arrives by inning 1.69. Deeper early bids, mind you, still don’t become finished April no-hitters; see the myth above.
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  First-pitch temperature from MLB’s schedule feed, 45,396 outdoor pitching sides since 2015. Mean hitless depth by temperature band, a broad downward gradient: below 55°F 0.81, 55–64 0.82, 65–74 0.78, 75–84 0.74, 85+ 0.70. In first-hit terms: inning 1.81 in the coldest band, 1.69 in the hottest. Adjusted for park, team-seasons, and day⁄night, the association is −0.030 innings per +10°F (F = 31.4, p ≈ 2×10⁻⁸), and adding month-of-season controls strengthens it to −0.044 (p ≈ 5×10⁻¹⁰) rather than explaining it away. Observational, not causal. Domes and closed roofs are excluded; their “weather” is a thermostat.

• Night games and wind barely register; roofs stay unproven. Day versus night: 0.003 innings apart (p ≈ 0.79). Even at Wrigley, where day baseball is the brand, the split is a rounding error. No wind specification we tested shows a detectable effect on first-hit timing (p from 0.13 to 0.99); wind moves home runs, and the hit that ends a bid is usually a single. Closing the roof carries a suggestive +0.04 but stays statistically inconclusive (p ≈ 0.18).
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  Same fixed-effects framework as the ballpark entry, with MLB’s first-pitch weather joined to all 54,274 sides. Day⁄night: +0.003 innings, p = 0.79 (the fussiest model version reaches p = 0.07 with a coefficient still too small to matter). Wrigley’s own split: 0.800 hitless innings by day, 0.797 by night. Wind, outdoor games only: in⁄out speed slopes per +10 mph are −0.005 and −0.011 (joint p = 0.73), direction classes alone p = 0.99, direction plus direction-specific speed p = 0.13; nothing tested clears significance. Roof closed, tested within the seven parks that actually open and close one, with month-of-season controls: +0.041 innings, p = 0.18. The roof decision follows the weather, so the archive cannot separate the two.

• Most no-hit bids refuse to be predicted. Parks and team quality leave real fingerprints, but a model carrying both teams, every season, the venue, and the home-side advantage explains barely 2% of game-to-game first-hit timing. The setting matters; the individual night remains mostly baseball noise.
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  The full fixed-effects model reaches R² = 0.024 over 54,202 deduplicated pitching sides: about 2.4% of the variance in how long a game’s opening no-hit bid survives, from more than 700 parameters. Every effect in this section is real and repeatable in aggregate, and nearly useless for calling tonight’s game. That is why we watch.

• A no-hitter is grand larceny. The 40 no-hitters since 2015 allowed 104 line drives, and every single one found a glove. League-wide, roughly two-thirds of line drives fall for hits. Dominance gets you to the seventh; larceny finishes the job.
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  104 line outs across the 40 games, 15% of their balls in play. At a league line-drive batting average near .650, P(all 104 caught) = 0.35¹⁰⁴ ≈ 10⁻⁴⁷. The .650 is a league-wide figure; the 104 line outs are counted directly from the pitch logs of the 40 no-hitters. Selection does the heavy lifting: a game only makes this list if every liner finds a glove.

• The no-hitter formula is whiffs, not pinpoint control. Across the 40 no-hitters since 2015, pitchers struck out 32% of the batters they faced, roughly half again the league rate. Their walk rate was 7.7%, basically league average. You don't walk your way around trouble for nine innings; you miss bats straight through it.
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  372 strikeouts in 1,162 plate appearances (32.0%) and 89 walks (7.7%). League rates run near 22% and 8.5%, respectively. Called strikes plus swinging strikes came to 32.5% of all 4,707 pitches, against a league norm near 29%.

• The typical spoiler is no cheapie. Of the 392 Statcast-graded hits that broke up deep bids since 2015, the median expected batting average (xBA) was .615, and 44% left the bat at 100 mph or harder. The cruelty tail is real but thin: one in thirteen carried an xBA under .200. And not one was a popup.
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  Median xBA .615; 63% graded .500 or better; 7.4% under .200. By exit velocity, 19.9% left the bat under 85 mph. Batted-ball type is recorded for 393 hits, one more than carry an xBA grade: 47% line drives, 33% ground balls, 20% fly balls, and zero popups.

• One no-hitter is a ghost. Four Dodgers combined to no-hit the Padres in Monterrey, Mexico in 2018, the first no-hitter thrown outside the United States or Canada, and no pitch-tracking system was watching. All but one pitch from that night went into the books untyped, so the game haunts our Anatomy of a no-hitter chart as a stack of pitches nobody can name.
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  Of the game's 147 pitches, 146 carry no type code in MLB's feed; Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey had no tracking system installed. The chart's Other bucket holds 398 pitches: 114 sweepers, 78 knuckle curves, 59 splitters, and 147 untyped, 146 of those from Monterrey.

• Lightning picks favorites. Four players have made the final out of two different no-hitters since 2015, and in each case both came against the same team. Jordan Luplow made the last out of both no-hitters thrown against Cleveland in 2021, 23 days apart. J.T. Realmuto did it twice against the Phillies in 2022, once in April and once in the World Series. Eugenio Suárez made both final outs for the Reds, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both for the Blue Jays.
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  Luplow's outs came against Rodón (April 14, 2021) and Miley (May 7, 2021). Realmuto's came in the five-pitcher Mets no-hitter (April 29, 2022) and the Astros' Game 4 World Series no-hitter (November 2, 2022). Suárez's came against Arrieta (April 21, 2016) and Fiers (May 7, 2019). Guerrero Jr.'s came against Manning and two relievers (July 8, 2023) and Blanco (April 1, 2024). It's less cosmic than it looks: a team that gets no-hit twice sends mostly the same hitters to the plate both times, and somebody has to bat last.

• Nobody bunts their way out of a no-hitter. Across all 40 no-hitters since 2015, a bunt attempt touched the pitch log just six times, and not one became a hit. Three of those batters struck out, one grounded out, one gave up on the bunt and walked anyway, and the only bunt that actually got down was a sacrifice, which donates an out. The unwritten rule enforces itself.
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  Six plate appearances since 2015 show a bunt attempt in the pitch log against a live no-hit bid, in 2015 (twice), 2020, 2021, and 2024 (twice). The outcomes were three strikeouts, a groundout, a walk, and one completed sacrifice bunt, laid down by the opposing pitcher, Alex Wood, against Arrieta in 2015. The count is a floor; a batter who squares and pulls back leaves no trace in the pitch record.

• Spoilers arrive at any speed. The hardest bid-breaking hit since 2015 left the bat at 115.7 mph, off Rick Porcello in 2018. The softest left at 23 mph, barely a fifth as fast, and it ended a Guardians bid in 2024 all the same. And one spoiler came off the bat at a launch angle of minus 63 degrees, driven nearly straight into the ground, and still went for a hit.
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  Among the 392 Statcast-graded spoiler hits, the maximum exit velocity is 115.7 mph (April 12, 2018) and the minimum is 23.0 mph (September 25, 2024, sixth inning); the median is 98.5 mph. The minus-63-degree hit came off Tyler Anderson on June 15, 2022, at just 48.7 mph: Jared Walsh chopped it nearly straight down and beat it out for a single that never left the infield.

• One night in five, a no-hit bid gets serious. Across 2,243 game-days since 2015, somebody's staff has carried a no-hit bid through the 6th inning on 18% of them — about one night in five and a half. Through the 7th: one night in twelve. Through the 8th: one night in twenty-five. The season calendar above is that rhythm, drawn.
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  Of 2,243 dates with games since 2015, 407 saw at least one bid finish the 6th hitless (18.1%), 183 the 7th (8.2%), and 90 the 8th (4.0%). These are the same per-day maxima that color the season calendar.

• Lightning does strike twice. The 308 solo no-hitters belong to just 261 pitchers: 36 of them threw a second — one in seven — and together those repeaters own 83, more than a quarter of the solo total. Larry Corcoran had three before 1885. Throwing one is mostly luck. Throwing two starts to look like a skill.
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  Combined no-hitters excluded; this counts the 308 thrown start to finish by one pitcher. For scale: no-hitters happen about once every 1,400 starts, so even a pitcher who goes on to make 150 more starts — several full seasons — has roughly a 1-in-10 shot at throwing one. Among pitchers who already had one, one in seven did it again.

• Cleveland's drought is guarded by perfection. Every current franchise has thrown at least one no-hitter, but none has waited longer than the Guardians: nothing since Len Barker's perfect game on May 15, 1981 — 45 seasons and counting. Even so, the math says that's long, not cursed (p ≈ 0.12).
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  At the league-wide rate of 330 no-hitters over 2,736 team-seasons (0.121 per team-season), one particular team going 45 seasons dry is P = e^−5.4 ≈ 0.004. But thirty franchises roll those dice at once: the longest drought among 30 should run about ln(30) ⁄ 0.121 ≈ 28 seasons, and the chance that at least one reaches 45 is about 12%. Runners-up: Toronto (Dave Stieb, 1990), Kansas City (Bret Saberhagen, 1991), Atlanta (Kent Mercker, 1994).

• The pitch limit goes out the window. Modern starters rarely see the 100-pitch mark — unless a no-hitter is alive. The 40 thrown since 2015 averaged 118 pitches; twenty-six ran past 110 and a dozen past 120. The five-pitcher Mets no-hitter of 2022 burned 159 pitches; Framber Valdez needed just 93.
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  Mean 118, median 114 across the 40 pitch logs in the Anatomy of a no-hitter data. 26 of 40 exceeded 110 pitches; 12 exceeded 120. Maximum: 159 (the five-pitcher Mets game, April 29, 2022). Minimum: 93 (Valdez, August 1, 2023).

• Facing the minimum isn't perfection. Since 2015, four no-hitters have faced the minimum 27 batters — and only one was a perfect game. John Means came as close as a pitcher can in 2021: a third strike bounced away, the batter reached first, and the perfect game was gone even though he was caught stealing a moment later. Edinson Volquez and Framber Valdez walked men who were promptly erased on the bases. Twenty-seven up, twenty-seven down, and the record book still says no.
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  The four: Edinson Volquez (June 3, 2017), John Means (May 5, 2021), Domingo Germán (June 28, 2023 — the perfect one), and Framber Valdez (August 1, 2023). Perfection isn't about facing 27 batters; it's about nobody reaching base at all. Means lost his to the dropped third strike, Volquez and Valdez to walks — and every one of those runners was wiped out on the bases, which is the only way 27 batters can produce 27 outs.

• 2025 threw zero. The 20th blank season since 1901 and the first in two decades. At the modern rate, about a 1-in-23 event.
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  The 2000 through 2024 seasons averaged λ = 3.12 no-hitters per year. P(zero) = e^−3.12 ≈ 4.4%, about 1 in 23.